NEW POLL - CIVIL MARRIAGE EQUALITY SUPPORTED By 54% with 40% AGAINST

A new statewide poll conducted in Maryland by Hart Research Associates finds the marriage equality ballot initiative to be in a very strong position to pass in November. From July 24 to 28, 2012, 504 likely voters were interviewed statewide, as well as 515 African-American likely voters statewide. (The margin of error for each survey is ± 4.5 percentage points).

In the trial heat for the referendum vote, 54% of Marylanders say they would vote for  the law that allows gay and lesbian couples to legally marry, while 40% say they will vote against  this law. 

This 14-point support margin is a marked improvement over the eight points we measured this past March (51% vote for, 43% vote against).

In addition to the 54% majority who would vote FOR marriage equality, we are also encouraged by the growing INTENSITY among supporters.

Strong “FOR” support is now 43%, strong “AGAINST” is 35%—an eight-point advantage for marriage equality. 

Previous polling, even those finding marriage equality with a lead, show a more EVEN divide between strong FOR and strongAGAINST voters—in March of this year it was 39% strongly for, 38% strongly against.

In a separate survey question, we asked Marylanders the importance of themarriage equality referendum. 

It is notable that among the near-majority of Maryland voters who rate the issue as EXTREMELY important, 66% would vote FOR marriage equality and just 33% would vote AGAINST.

In the subgroup analysis of the referendum vote, support for the referendum hasincreased among both white and African-American voters. 

White voters went from favoring the referendum by 11 points in March (53% to 42%) to favoring it by 13 points today (54% to 41%); 

African-American voters went from opposing the referendum by nine points (40% to 49%) to being evenly divided between support and opposition today (44% to 45%).

SOURCE:

Maryland Marriage Equality Poll Results - Aug. 2, 2012